2 Responses to “Dow update”

1. GolfBoy
   February 3rd, 2010 at 12:56 am

   

   Mike,

   I’ve been staring at the gold chart, and the following question arises. If it turns back down from near the present peak and bounces off support at 1075-1080, wouldn’t that constitute some kind of triangle - and thus portend a rise to new highs?

   I know that this goes against the general forces of deflation, but I want to be prepared for the possibility that gold is “different.” After all S&P just threatened another downgrade of U.S. debt, and this sort of crisis has historically favored gold.

2. Mike
   February 3rd, 2010 at 4:09 am

   

   Good eye. Yes, that is certainly a possibility. Silver does not show the pattern, however.

   Stocks peaked in July and Oct 2007, but gold peaked in March 2008 and other commodities peaked in June/July 2008. If the pattern repeats, commodities could surge ahead of stocks now.

   That said, commodity bullishness was so extreme for so long this year, and many uptrends are now broken.